What are the Odds? – Danny Makes a Big Move!

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We’ve been having a lot of fun tracking match picks, and more importantly tracking our bankroll. And trust me, the ball-busting that takes place on our episodes is nothing compared to the insults that fly around when the mics are turned off. If you’d like a refresher on what we’re doing, check out my blog archive to read up on past “What Are the Odds” posts and follow how we got to where we are.

When the semi-finals started, I felt confident I was going to push my way up to the top of our standings...but as luck would have it, Danny is the one who made the big move. Let’s take a look and see what happened after the first legs of the semi-final round.


Monterrey vs Cruz Azul

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Monterrey came out and played with their heads on fire. It was quite the show, but Cruz Azul didn’t fold under the bright lights. Instead they’ve set themselves up nicely for the second leg at Azteca by only conceding 1 goal to Monterrey. I went with the draw and was the only one not to cash out in this one. Anthony and Danny both backed the home team and it paid off for them.

Pumas vs Club América

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Diego Lainez got the Liguilla version of El Clasico Capitalino started early in the first half with a goal in the 21st minute. Pumas battled back in the second half and continued to pour it on.  The match ended in a 1-1 draw and once again puts the spotlight on Miguel Herrera’s Aguilas: will they come out and respond to harsh criticism? Recent history suggests they will. You can hear our thoughts in our latest episode.

Interestingly enough, we each had a different pick in this match. I took Pumas to get the win at home, and thought I was in the money after Pumas answered in the second half. Let that be a lesson to all of you: never count your chickens before they hatch. Anthony apprehensively backed Club América in this one, while Danny continued his 3-game winning streak by going with the draw.

Pick Standings

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Danny doesn’t want your money, he wants your bookie’s money. Danny got his 3rd pick correct in a row, and the Pumas draw at +230 puts him in the lead over Anthony.  Anthony may be 3-3 but he did increase his bankroll by $20 since our last “What Are the Odds” post. I tried to get cute and go against the other picks but all that got me was an ass kicking.

Semi-final leg 2 picks and odds:

Game 1: Cruz Azul vs Monterrey

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Cruz Azul is going to play the same game they played in Monterrey, only this time it will be at home at Azteca. But I think Cruz Azul will go down early to Monterrey’s attack and Rayados will have to weather a big push by La Maquina. Going to take Monterrey with the win, but i’m nervous about it.  Monterrey +250


I’m going with a draw. Mori is causing havoc and will score early. Monterrey will take the lead and drop back and defend. I think Cruz Azul will answer but not get the win. I’m calling it 2-2 and Monterrey advances. Draw +210


I have no choice but to try and make a move with only 4 games left in the season. Going to take the home team Cruz Azul to win just so I can catch up with Anthony and Danny. But it’s also hard not to like the home team. Cruz Azul has the best defense on paper and a shutout is on the horizon.  Cruz Azul at home +115

Game 2: Club América vs Pumas

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Club América will win 2-1 and advance.  Club América -150


Going to copy Danny since he’s the lead dog and I need to keep pace with him. 2-1 América. Club América -150


My dad’s an Américanista. My friends are Américanistas. I’ve been to Azteca. They sell beers in the stands, which I like. Club América -150.

Check back early next week to see how we did!

Darryl Lopez is the host, producer, and sound editor of the El Three Podcast. He is passionate about watching the game with a statistical bend,  and you can count on him to have something at stake on a sporting event near you.